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Lies and statistics — 4 Comments

  1. This is apples and oranges:

    – Annualised rate based on one months particularly low figure is not necessarily a sound basis for judgement.

    – Exactly what a “sale” is, is not qualified. Needs to be judged in a context of tradition of ownership V rental.

    – The quotes are talking -sales- in the US v. -builds- in Ireland.

    – Would also need to consider home ownership rates, local government housing, etc.

  2. Agreed, Paddy.

    But even if you took the anticipated US figure of sales of 720,000 and, say, doubled it, to give one and a half million builds, you would still only have the US building total at twenty-five times that anticipated in Ireland in 2008, when an equal number per capita would mean seventy-five times as many. Ireland would be building three times as many houses per capita as the United States.

  3. You still have apples and oranges.

    For example, what is relative population growth, immigration (eastern Europe & China to Ireland), age demographic of home buyers (eg: % of population currently seen as eligble or likely buyers).

    There is far too much missing from the analysis for it to stand as a reliable comparison. It doesn’t work to say “what if” … “then you still have 25 times” … when there could be a galaxy of information/context missing (or subject to different definition or interpretation) between the numbers being offered here.

    A rule of thumb I usually stick too is to completely ignore what is in the newspapers. I wouldn’t normally read or respond to blogs either but I got a keyword alert for this particular piece.

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