Who wants a poisoned chalice? — 3 Comments

  1. Actually no. When a party is ten ishy points above the nearest runners a compounding effect occurs in PR where a party gains more seats than the numbers might suggest.
    The reverse is also valid if a party is trending minus. Here, the tailwind for SF could cause a very strong headwind for FF and FG.
    The others are local constituency players, including the Irish Labour party and Greens. Both I think will lose to those positioned further left, PBP, et al.

  2. Sinn Fein’s problem lies in the fact they do not attract transfers. They were eight points clear of the DUP in the Assembly elections in the North (29%-21%) and still only won two more seats than the DUP.

    I have heard talk from a Fine Gael member in a rural constituency of the members of his party switching to Fianna Fail down the ballot.

  3. They made an error last time by not running enough candidates. For had they done so they would’ve gained five plus seats. They had the transfers. Next GE, given the ire widespread in the electorate and safe to say SF won’t make the same mistake they will be very very near a majority. NI is different.

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